Lot of truth to that and I'll add to the last part.
The old guys, the GOOD techs, are leaving because of the many changes being forced upon them, of which they aren't willing to accept. And I respect that, because I are one, and did just that-left. But on a different set of circumstances. I could, I could afford it, and I left (semi-retired) with no plan on working. But got an offer I couldn't refuse, at a place that has been super great to work for. Anyway, when I was at the kubota shop, I saw a lot of customers come and go, was actively involved with a lot of them as a tech, writer, and manager all in one for a number of years. I saw the trends. In as late as the 1990's owners could change their own lawn mower belts with ease as long as they had a diagram. They could grease their own gauge wheels and deck spindles. They changed their own oil often, and honestly I liked it--all except the part about they never show up unless they need you to FIX something major. As time went on, over the last 30 or so years, people are more reluctant to do these things. I changed belts for years and years and still do, some of them are elementary, some not so much. People don't change their own oil, they pay us to do it (for the most part). As primarily a service tech now, I make the majority of my comission on easy jobs, e.g., oil changes, tire changes, transmission fluid flush/change, front differential, and accessory installs. Bigger jobs, transmission rebuilds, engine replacements/rebuilds, in some cases complete frame swaps, you usually lose on those. Going on flat rate of course, which assumes everything goes as planned, and it rarely does unless it's a routine service type job (oil changes...). A frame swap, pays 16.0 hours. So long as it's newish and clean, I can do it in 14.5-15. If it's used, I have to spend a couple hours cleaning it up, and if one bolt breaks off, I then lose money. Thus, I don't get too excited about those kinds of jobs. Particularly engines, since the majority of them have broken exhaust bolts to deal with, and they don't pay for that. So you have to estimate high, and hope they don't shop around. Sometimes they do, and you lose the job. And sometimes those end up paying more in the long run but you can't change their minds really. Anyway, times are changing. Now I'm playing with EV a lot more. In some ways they are simpler. In other ways they are more complex. No transmission/torque converter/clutch to have to deal with now, along with the supporting hardware (pumps, fluids, etc) but it's all replaced with an electric motor, a lot of wires, and a control unit or three. Testing wires is easy. Testing the motor isn't terribly hard, but keep in mind a lot of the EV motors have speed sensors, they have temp sensors, among other things on them just like a gas engine does. And they sometimes fail too. Speed sensor, if it fails, the unit goes into limp home mode and will go like 5 mph max. Makes for a long drive, potentially dangerous drive if you're cruising down the freeway at 5mph and cars are passing you at mach 2 like they do here. The biggest deal is the controller. There is no testing the controller, only the wiring and sensors going TO the controller. You test each sensor, then you test each wire (hundreds of them in some cases), then test the motor. If all tests good, then the controller is deemed to be 'bad' and if it is, and the unit is out of warranty, those controllers are NOT cheap to just "try" one, and a lot of times they are not returnable or rebuildable. People often say "EV's are simpler and don't fail and if they do, it won't cost as much" and there is some truth there, there is no gas engine or hydraulically controlled transmission to deal with, but there is all that wiring and controller(s) that can and do sometimes die. If a controller dies usually the vehicle will not move, it is just dead--as if your engine expired. So really you're just trading one set of issues for another. Older techs like myself, aren't excited about working on EV, but I'm forcing myself to learn it because it's being forced upon everyone. I don't agree with it but it looks like they're forcing us. i'm fighting it as much as I can but as a tech, I either learn it, or I find something else to do.
But now as gas/diesel engines have become so tightly controlled, the government really doesn't want you (or I) working on them unless we are trained as such, because with the right software and hardware, we (as untrained) can cause the engine to run in a different state of tune, which affects what and how it emits byproducts, which are VERY tightly controlled as said. Hence, what the government is doing to the small diesel shops, going after them for doing "deletes" and "off-road" "kits", as well as small speed shops that sell "race car" parts. They are pulling no stops either, they're going after TONS of them, such that at least one particular, popular vehicle that you could at one time buy almost every single part through the aftermarket to build one complete from the ground up, is seeing a loss of availability of certain items because the government is going after the companies selling and/or making those parts. They're effectively ruining an entire hobby, or lifestyle for some folks. But they don't care about you, they care about the air you breathe and they care more about votes and their own agenda than the air, or at least it seems that way.
So that brings up a subject. My older friend, who recently passed, owned a machine shop. He retired a few years ago and let the kids take over, and they do a good job of keeping things going. They've had to update everything to laser cutters and the sort, all up-to-date now. BUT they still also have some manual machinery, and nobody knows how to use it. So my friend "BOB" contacted me out of the blue and offered me a job over there full-time since I went to school to become a machinest way back when, before CNC became commonplace. I can do some CNC but very, very little and it's been so long that everything I learned is now long outdated, but using manual equipment is still with me to an extent. Bob still new that stuff, and was willing to get me back into it but I felt that the timing wasn't right and had to decline. And that brings up the subject of "old" gas cars. Not too many dealers will even work on an old gas car anymore. usually if you take something in that's more than about 10 years old they won't even touch it. But there is that opportunity for independent shops to fill that need. So in another 10 years from today, I wonder, if the skill set of the old mechanics, kinda like myself, who know how to rebuild carburetors and the like, is that going to be a skill that is no longer needed? I personally can't see older collectible stuff completely disappearing but that's just me, maybe that's my own attraction to the older vehicles causing a bias, I don't know.
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