Paralysis by analysis - Buying decision needs wise input!

fried1765

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Kubota L48 TLB, Ford 1920 FEL, Ford 8N, SCAG Liberty Z, Gravely Pro.
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It has never been real cheap to buy used. Twenty years ago, a used tractor with reasonable hours and in good condition would bring 75% of new.
A major difference now though, is that pre Tier IV tractors have held their value even better.
 
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fried1765

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Kubota L48 TLB, Ford 1920 FEL, Ford 8N, SCAG Liberty Z, Gravely Pro.
Nov 14, 2019
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While probably not surprising to y'all, I just got back from the dealer and a new M6060, 3rd function, no cab, Ag tires (filled), is not much more expensive than a 2 year old version with low miles.
I asked about a cash discount and was told there really isn't one, as I'd guess they make more money on the financing kick back.

Anyone want to forecast when, if ever, the used tractor market might start coming down?
Maybe...... prices will retreat some in Summer of 2023.
 

PaulL

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B2601
Jul 17, 2017
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Tractors don't depreciate like cars do. A ten year old tractor still does pretty much everything a new tractor does, other than some luxury features. Small tractors don't have a lot of luxury features. I figure that my B2601 (that I bought new) will sell for what I bought for it - in 2 years, in 5 years, in 10 years. Inflation means that a new one's getting more expensive, but the old ones aren't getting cheaper. Of course, with inflation at 7%, then a new tractor will be 14% more expensive in 2 years.

Anyone want to forecast when, if ever, the used tractor market might start coming down?
My guess is that the used market is a bit hot due to shortage of new equipment.

Having said that, you have use for a machine now.

I posted this thought on a different thread, but I'll replicate here.

Imagine you buy now. In 2 years time one of two things will have happened. Tractors will be more expensive, in which case you got the tractor when you needed it and for less money. Great deal!! Or tractors will be cheaper. But you've had two years of use from your tractor, so you've come out roughly even, you can feel fine.

Imagine you wait. In 2 years time one of two things will have happened. Tractors will be more expensive, in which case you went without a tractor for two years, and then had to pay more money into the deal. Now you feel really bad, it was a bad decision. Or tractors will be cheaper. So you get a tractor cheaper, but as soon as you get it you'll be kicking yourself you didn't get it earlier, because you used a spade and a wheelbarrow when you could have been driving a tractor. So you feel maybe fine, maybe a little sad you didn't get a tractor earlier.

Inflation is running at 7%. Not much is going to get cheaper.

You're pretty much always better off buying now.
 
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Mountainhill

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While probably not surprising to y'all, I just got back from the dealer and a new M6060, 3rd function, no cab, Ag tires (filled), is not much more expensive than a 2 year old version with low miles.
I asked about a cash discount and was told there really isn't one, as I'd guess they make more money on the financing kick back.

Anyone want to forecast when, if ever, the used tractor market might start coming down?
How exciting, make sure you get lots of seat time, want to keep that cost per hour down! Curious to know what, implements you plan to have. For myself I use box blade for three seasons, rear blade for winter snow. Box Blade is definitely my go to implement for road work and earth moving.
 

skeets

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BX 2360 /B2601
Oct 2, 2009
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Just a thought, having been down this road with Sis.
And the OH hell we can do that!
Nawwww the big jobs have the guys with the right tools come in to to what you want done!
Expencive ,yep it will be, however in the long run, it is a much better option for you and the family, and trust me when they are finished doing what you want done, there will be more stuff to get into with the boys than you ever thought. Just MHO, some times one man can do a lot with what he has, other times not so much. And I think what you want to do falls under the not so much side.
 
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WaltWestbrook

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Honda Rancher, Swisher brush hog, teen age boys.
Nov 28, 2022
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Rhea County, TN
How exciting, make sure you get lots of seat time, want to keep that cost per hour down! Curious to know what, implements you plan to have. For myself I use box blade for three seasons, rear blade for winter snow. Box Blade is definitely my go to implement for road work and earth moving.
Box blade, bucket, 3rd function with grapple, forks and probably bush hog are on the list. Bucket and grapple first, as there are many, many trees to clear and brush to strip out.
 

WaltWestbrook

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Honda Rancher, Swisher brush hog, teen age boys.
Nov 28, 2022
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Just a thought, having been down this road with Sis.
And the OH hell we can do that!
Nawwww the big jobs have the guys with the right tools come in to to what you want done!
And I think what you want to do falls under the not so much side.
I'll admit it hurts me to sink $5000 in grading and clearing services when that same cash could go toward equipment. I think, or assume (yes, I know), that I'd be trading speed / time more than anything. Yes professional services have the right gear and are fast, but not only do I not learn anything, I still don't have the equipment I know I'll need at some point.
Thanks for weighing in and sharing this...I'm probably being an idiot.
 

Elliott in GA

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LX 2610SU w/535,LP RCR1860,FDR1660,SGC0554,FSP500, DD BBX60005
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I'll admit it hurts me to sink $5000 in grading and clearing services when that same cash could go toward equipment. I think, or assume (yes, I know), that I'd be trading speed / time more than anything. Yes professional services have the right gear and are fast, but not only do I not learn anything, I still don't have the equipment I know I'll need at some point.
Thanks for weighing in and sharing this...I'm probably being an idiot.
There is nothing wrong with and everything right with wanting to do the work yourself or with family.

However, I still stand by my recommendation to hire out the heavy work. One of your goals is to clear 30 acres of bottom land. Any tractor is not well suited to this task. You will end up buying an oversized tractor (oversized in terms of your future farm and maintain the land needs) and implements that are not sized/suited for your future needs. You buy a bigger tractor with a very heavy duty rotary cutter (very stout and not very wide) - it's what is required to make progress (it will be very slow) clearing land. The tractor could be much more than you need, and you will probably want a medium duty rotary cutter that is much wider (complete your mowing faster) in the future. You will probably end up spending much more.

I leveled 3 sites (30x30, 30x15 and 12x12 feet) with my LX, box blade and Bosch Rotary Laser Kit. The slope on each site was about 1.5 feet, and the soil was hard red clay with lots of rocks. It was well within the ability of my equipment. If the slope had been 4 feet, I would have hired it out. It would not have made any sense to buy a bigger tractor with bigger implements, when my future tasks beyond leveling these sites could be handled by an LX machine.

You might want to go back to your dealer, and have them price out everything (tractor/implements/attachments) you would need to do all of your tasks (including your bridge) and what you would need just to farm and maintain the land.

Good Luck with you choices and projects.
 
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WaltWestbrook

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Good Luck with you choices and projects.
Your input is valuable, thanks Elliott.
Would you say that an M6060 is too large over the long term? The idea of getting into a lower priced MX or L4701 is really appealing based on the math alone. I do wonder about maneuvering in the trees, creek embankments, etc. and thought the M6060 might have some downside.

I really appreciate your thoughtful response.
 

GeoHorn

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I have never bought a tractor, implement, battery, anchor, bilge-pump, or engine…which was “too big”.
I’ve wasted money on cheap, too-small stuff tho’.
 
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Elliott in GA

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LX 2610SU w/535,LP RCR1860,FDR1660,SGC0554,FSP500, DD BBX60005
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North Georgia
Your input is valuable, thanks Elliott.
Would you say that an M6060 is too large over the long term? The idea of getting into a lower priced MX or L4701 is really appealing based on the math alone. I do wonder about maneuvering in the trees, creek embankments, etc. and thought the M6060 might have some downside.

I really appreciate your thoughtful response.
I cannot answer that question - never seen your land and only have a couple of paragraphs of your needs to go on.

You, with the help of your dealer or experienced local friend, can determine how much tractor you need for on-going future farming and etc. I would say that if you are planning to buy a certain sized tractor based just on your initial (getting everything in order) tasks; it is probably more tractor than you need in the long run. You would be wasting your money; money that could be better spent. If you do not have a local experienced friend, you should ask the dealer to meet you at your property.
 

jyoutz

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Your input is valuable, thanks Elliott.
Would you say that an M6060 is too large over the long term? The idea of getting into a lower priced MX or L4701 is really appealing based on the math alone. I do wonder about maneuvering in the trees, creek embankments, etc. and thought the M6060 might have some downside.

I really appreciate your thoughtful response.
The MX is a sweet spot for capability, price, and maneuverability. You will appreciate the stability over a small L series or the cost savings over a M6060. Of course the M is larger still, but after the initial work is over, the MX will be better for maintenance.
 
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WaltWestbrook

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The MX is a sweet spot for capability, price, and maneuverability. You will appreciate the stability over a small L series or the cost savings over a M6060. Of course the M is larger still, but after the initial work is over, the MX will be better for maintenance.
I found an Mx6000 coming up for auction a few hours away. Thanks for this input.
 
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GeoHorn

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I cannot answer that question - never seen your land and only have a couple of paragraphs of your needs to go on.

You, with the help of your dealer or experienced local friend, can determine how much tractor you need for on-going future farming and etc. I would say that if you are planning to buy a certain sized tractor based just on your initial (getting everything in order) tasks; it is probably more tractor than you need in the long run. You would be wasting your money; money that could be better spent. If you do not have a local experienced friend, you should ask the dealer to meet you at your property.
Elliot..that’s good advice. But unfortunately just because someone is a tractor dealer doesn’t make it foolproof to follow their advice.
The dealer/salesman I consulted really surprised me when over the phone (I had called to see what tractors cost in 2018) … he really went out of his way to drive back-country roads round-trip to come see what I was wanting to accomplish with a new-to-me tractor.
He looked at my task…(a ten acre hog-damaged turf runway)…and told me I needed at least a 50 HP tractor, a disc-harrow, tiller, and land plane….to break-up, and level-out what my little 9N Ford couldn’t even drive over in places. (It really was that bad.)
He wasn’t trying to “sell me” what he had in-stock… in fact, he suggested I get online to look at classifieds to see what might be on the market within 100 miles… but he’d be happy to advise me on anything I might find… Meanwhile, he could help me with the implements if I decided to ”go that way”.

I found two M4700DT tractors within 25 miles of me, both exceptionally low time <400 hrs each…one priced at $17K w/pin on bucket and the other at $20K w/bucket and grapple. The $17K was closest so I grabbed my step-son (who had experience with really large JDs on a commercial ranch) and we went to look at them on Saturday.
The $17K guy was unwilling to haggle and claimed to have a buyer who promised to return on Monday with cash. (True or not….That was a good strategy-story, heh?)

I called the other tractor-seller and told him I really didn’t need a grapple …(yeah… I know what your’e thinking…NOW…but that day I didn’t know…or didn’t think.) 😔
Anyway, the $20K guy said he’d knock a $1K off if I didn’t want the grapple…. and that didn’t sound like much for an otherwise equivalent tractor…AND was another 50 miles round-trip to obtain….

…So I made the deal with the $17K guy, left him a deposit check and came back on Monday with the cash.

Despite the value of the hindsight…I feel really good about the tractor I acquired… but realized the grapple and, even more importantly, the additional hydraulics of that other tractor was probably a great deal (if it was in comparable condition to the one I bought.) Probably a boo-boo on my part.

I then went back to my dealer and bought the disc, the tiller, and the land plane. Spent $7500 on those items.…. all totally useless for the task. The kind salesman who appeared to be knowledgeable and sincerely tried to help me…. knew as much about repairing hog-damage as I did…. which was SQUAT!

NONE of that was necessary to repair the damage. The disc was unable to dig/plow deeply enough in the hard subsoil to level out the damage. The tiller was unable to address it due to the amount of grass involved …. it became hopelessly wrapped-up in forage…. and the land plane merely slid across the top of the turf and chopped grass but did nothing to the foot-tall hardened mud/dirt piles rooted up by the hogs.

My point in this long winded story is…. the advice you’ll get from the tractor dealer is directly proportional to the experience that dealer has in the specific tasks you intend to accomplish with the equipment. Don’t waste your time getting advice from someone who has “never done that” but only has an opinion …. and benefits from selling you something.

Postscript: Using the classifieds on these Forums, …I sold the disc and tiller to a man from East Texas who wanted to make a deer food plot. I took a $1500 loss. The land plane sits in the yard and looks good. I’ve used it once in 4 yrs on my dirt road. No it’s not for sale, but it’s also not worth the $2500 I spent on it… my existing box blade or grader-blade does just as well. But I gave the 9n back to its’ previous owner (thanks Ol’ Gar) and he sold it. My M4700DT is a real pleasure and much more capable with it’s loader than the little Ford that struggled with my Rhino 72“ shredder.

How did I fix the hog damaged runways? I found a used, ex-state hwy dept ‘87 compactor-roller that weighs 14K lbs running on a 4239 JD diesel for $8K. Two days after the next rain…. I spent a day and a six-pack rolling/compacting that runway smooth. The compacted soil is now avoided completely by the hogs… too hard for them. I roll/compact it annually to keep them reminded and occasionally reduce their numbers with a pre ‘64 Win 30-30.

4AD1A609-A1D3-490F-8C78-35C43E696E26.jpeg
39D4A648-D22A-4969-90F5-486264C27C3D.jpeg
 
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Elliott in GA

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LX 2610SU w/535,LP RCR1860,FDR1660,SGC0554,FSP500, DD BBX60005
Mar 10, 2021
743
725
93
North Georgia
Elliot..that’s good advice. But unfortunately just because someone is a tractor dealer doesn’t make it foolproof to follow their advice.
The dealer/salesman I consulted really surprised me when over the phone (I had called to see what tractors cost in 2018) … he really went out of his way to drive back-country roads round-trip to come see what I was wanting to accomplish with a new-to-me tractor.
He looked at my task…(a ten acre hog-damaged turf runway)…and told me I needed at least a 50 HP tractor, a disc-harrow, tiller, and land plane….to break-up, and level-out what my little 9N Ford couldn’t even drive over in places. (It really was that bad.)
He wasn’t trying to “sell me” what he had in-stock… in fact, he suggested I get online to look at classifieds to see what might be on the market within 100 miles… but he’d be happy to advise me on anything I might find… Meanwhile, he could help me with the implements if I decided to ”go that way”.

I found two M4700DT tractors within 25 miles of me, both exceptionally low time <400 hrs each…one priced at $17K w/pin on bucket and the other at $20K w/bucket and grapple. The $17K was closest so I grabbed my step-son (who had experience with really large JDs on a commercial ranch) and we went to look at them on Saturday.
The $17K guy was unwilling to haggle and claimed to have a buyer who promised to return on Monday with cash. (True or not….That was a good strategy-story, heh?)

I called the other tractor-seller and told him I really didn’t need a grapple …(yeah… I know what your’e thinking…NOW…but that day I didn’t know…or didn’t think.) 😔
Anyway, the $20K guy said he’d knock a $1K off if I didn’t want the grapple…. and that didn’t sound like much for an otherwise equivalent tractor…AND was another 50 miles round-trip to obtain….

…So I made the deal with the $17K guy, left him a deposit check and came back on Monday with the cash.

Despite the value of the hindsight…I feel really good about the tractor I acquired… but realized the grapple and, even more importantly, the additional hydraulics of that other tractor was probably a great deal (if it was in comparable condition to the one I bought.) Probably a boo-boo on my part.

I then went back to my dealer and bought the disc, the tiller, and the land plane. Spent $7500 on those items.…. all totally useless for the task. The kind salesman who appeared to be knowledgeable and sincerely tried to help me…. knew as much about repairing hog-damage as I did…. which was SQUAT!

NONE of that was necessary to repair the damage. The disc was unable to dig/plow deeply enough in the hard subsoil to level out the damage. The tiller was unable to address it due to the amount of grass involved …. it became hopelessly wrapped-up in forage…. and the land plane merely slid across the top of the turf and chopped grass but did nothing to the foot-tall hardened mud/dirt piles rooted up by the hogs.

My point in this long winded story is…. the advice you’ll get from the tractor dealer is directly proportional to the experience that dealer has in the specific tasks you intend to accomplish with the equipment. Don’t waste your time getting advice from someone who has “never done that” but only has an opinion …. and benefits from selling you something.

Postscript: Using the classifieds on these Forums, …I sold the disc and tiller to a man from East Texas who wanted to make a deer food plot. I took a $1500 loss. The land plane sits in the yard and looks good. I’ve used it once in 4 yrs on my dirt road. No it’s not for sale, but it’s also not worth the $2500 I spent on it… my existing box blade or grader-blade does just as well. But I gave the 9n back to its’ previous owner (thanks Ol’ Gar) and he sold it. My M4700DT is a real pleasure and much more capable with it’s loader than the little Ford that struggled with my Rhino 72“ shredder.

How did I fix the hog damaged runways? I found a used, ex-state hwy dept ‘87 compactor-roller that weighs 14K lbs running on a 4239 JD diesel for $8K. Two days after the next rain…. I spent a day and a six-pack rolling/compacting that runway smooth. The compacted soil is now avoided completely by the hogs… too hard for them. I roll/compact it annually to keep them reminded and occasionally reduce their numbers with a pre ‘64 Win 30-30.

View attachment 91812 View attachment 91813
Well, every situation is different. Hopefully, the OP has an experienced friend or knowledgeable dealer to help him make selections for his more generic/common tasks (versus hog damaged runway).

My buying experience was completely the opposite of what I am recommending. I bought the tractor and all of the items in my signature over the phone/email from my dealer (near my property but 250 miles from where I live). I had seen the LX at a near to my home dealership. I test drove nothing, and I never went over how things work with my dealer prior to or at delivery. Everything has worked out perfectly; I have never had a moment of regret. The tractor and implements/attachments have done exactly what I expected of them, and I have not damaged anything. It has been 1.5+ years with 120+ hours on the tractor. I have reclaimed a small field, done lots of mowing of that field and other areas, leveled the three sites, moved/spread 100+ tons of gravel and much more. The only thing that is not getting the use I expected is the Spreader. I underestimated the effectiveness of the initial application of fertilizer with weed killer and the insecticide granules. I expected two applications every year to reclaim the field, but the initial applications plus frequent mowing and some spot use of ant bait has resulted in a healthy, fire ant free field. I am sure that I will use the spreader in the future; I may start with some small fields in my wife's adjacent family farm.
 
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nbryan

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I bought the tractor and all of the items in my signature over the phone/email from my dealer
Same here. Didn't see the new tractor and implements, or bill to pay and paperwork to sign, until it arrived at my driveway on a tilting flatbed trailer from the dealership 100km away. The driver unloaded then handed me a paper stack to sign, and that was that.

But I also spent 3 years I spent researching and shopping for the tractor and implementst to do all I needed on my 120 acres. Found out that nabbing a used unit wasn't sensible given my requirements and used Kubotas CUTs and SCUTs are like hens teeth and really hold their value. So checked with a few local deaerships, found similar deals (all 7-year 0% with added implements discounts) and made the order by email with the big K closest to me.

And like you, my new in 1997 setup has in the last 5 years done a huge amount of work and it will be all I'll ever need. And with superb reliability and performance.

All through following this thread I've been scratching my head wondering why anything over a 26HP CUT, given they are so fuel efficient and have no added emissions controls, is really needed as an all around small acreage tool. For really big forest work I hire a young crew to do the heavy clearing and levelling. Over in a day. And a neighborhood company can be hired to bring in a heavy excavator for a few hundred bucks and take care of those HD jobs like your gully crossing bridge, maybe rip up a few big stumps. Or install a septic holding tank.

Getting a bigger machine only for the first few seasons heavy jobs and only needing a lighter smaller unit like mine from then on is the thing that has me scratching my head.
 
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fried1765

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Kubota L48 TLB, Ford 1920 FEL, Ford 8N, SCAG Liberty Z, Gravely Pro.
Nov 14, 2019
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Eastham, Ma
Same here. Didn't see the new tractor and implements, or bill to pay and paperwork to sign, until it arrived at my driveway on a tilting flatbed trailer from the dealership 100km away. The driver unloaded then handed me a paper stack to sign, and that was that.

But I also spent 3 years I spent researching and shopping for the tractor and implementst to do all I needed on my 120 acres. Found out that nabbing a used unit wasn't sensible given my requirements and used Kubotas CUTs and SCUTs are like hens teeth and really hold their value. So checked with a few local deaerships, found similar deals (all 7-year 0% with added implements discounts) and made the order by email with the big K closest to me.

And like you, my new in 1997 setup has in the last 5 years done a huge amount of work and it will be all I'll ever need. And with superb reliability and performance.

All through following this thread I've been scratching my head wondering why anything over a 26HP CUT, given they are so fuel efficient and have no added emissions controls, is really needed as an all around small acreage tool. For really big forest work I hire a young crew to do the heavy clearing and levelling. Over in a day. And a neighborhood company can be hired to bring in a heavy excavator for a few hundred bucks and take care of those HD jobs like your gully crossing bridge, maybe rip up a few big stumps. Or install a septic holding tank.

Getting a bigger machine only for the first few seasons heavy jobs and only needing a lighter smaller unit like mine from then on is the thing that has me scratching my head.
Your head scratching questions are easily answered:
Either:
Wants
Needs
No financial constraints
AGE
Or a combination thereof.
 
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WaltWestbrook

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Honda Rancher, Swisher brush hog, teen age boys.
Nov 28, 2022
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6
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Rhea County, TN
Getting a bigger machine only for the first few seasons heavy jobs and only needing a lighter smaller unit like mine from then on is the thing that has me scratching my head.
Crunched the rental numbers yesterday and I'm leaning heavily in your direction. If the used market was not so tight (and mind boggling), then the math would probably come out to used. Just bid up a 3 year old, 190 hour MX6000 with a loader, cab. Went for $33,000. Not a bad price for the machine but only 20% new, which I had quoted at $39,000.

So I'm back at the L models, 3901 and 4701 to investigate. Thanks for your input.
 

mcmxi

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Just bid up a 3 year old, 190 hour MX6000 with a loader, cab. Went for $33,000. Not a bad price for the machine but only 20% new, which I had quoted at $39,000.
A new MX6000 with cab for $39k ... really? $33k is 15% less than $39k if that's what you meant.

Are dealers/salesman at dealerships a reliable source when it comes to picking the right tractor? The vast majority of employees at Kubota dealerships can't afford to own much of anything they sell, and have zero to very limited experience actually using the products they sell. I run into this all the time.

I hope you find the best tractor for you, but taking advice from those that haven't owned or used the products they're recommending for or against isn't a recipe for success.
 
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fried1765

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Crunched the rental numbers yesterday and I'm leaning heavily in your direction. If the used market was not so tight (and mind boggling), then the math would probably come out to used. Just bid up a 3 year old, 190 hour MX6000 with a loader, cab. Went for $33,000. Not a bad price for the machine but only 20% new, which I had quoted at $39,000.

So I'm back at the L models, 3901 and 4701 to investigate. Thanks for your input.
I do sorta think that I understand your "paralysis"......
BUT: Perhaps you are loosing sight of the "BUY ENOUGH TRACTOR" mantra.
Buying an L model, and wishing it were an MX, could turn into a very costly mistake.
Buying TWO tractors is a LOT MORE EXPENSIVE that just buying one....the FIRST time!

If it can help in relative cost comparison:
My exceptionally low hour L48 TLB is likely worth more (from comps. on web listings) than it cost when new in 2006.
Bought it for $32K in June of 2019.
It will be 17 years old in March!

Granted: The L48 is a very special machine.
Like you, I fiddled around looking, for 10 months......
But......I found it, (privately) at what I considered to be a good deal.
My friend, who formerly owned a fleet of concrete mix trucks, and two batch plants, claims I "stole" it.
He knows A LOT about equipment value!
 
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