Why is perception often much different than the truth?

[ctfjr]

Several of our friends were together over the weekend and the conversation turned to a robbery of one of our acquaintances. It was generally believed by most of us that crime has been a growing problem in this country. We wanted to see how much it has changed so we did an interwebby search. We were all pretty surprised to find this:

What's happening
The best data we have available shows that violent crime in the United States has declined significantly over the past couple of years. But ask the average American and they’ll confidently tell you that it’s actually going up.

According to the FBI’s preliminary analysis, crimes like murder, rape and assault fell in 2023 at what could prove to be a record pace, erasing a pandemic-era spike in violent crimes and bringing the national rates near the lowest levels ever recorded. The rate of property crimes like burglary and theft has also declined.

In survey after survey, though, Americans consistently say they believe crime is increasing. In a poll taken late last year, 77% of people said crime is getting worse, and two-thirds said crime is an extremely or very serious problem. The last time Americans were so pessimistic about crime was in the early 1990s, when the violent crime rate was more than double what it is today.

Apparently we aren't alone in thinking this.

 

[Biker1mike]

IMHO. Depends on the news source or lack of news source. Hard to see the big picture when you only watch the news that agrees with your outlook.
With the exception of FOX I try to get my news from several sources. Getting harder and harder to be middle of the road.

 

[Tarmy]

It IS AN ELECTION YEAR.

Supposedly, there is a bunch of skewEd crime data that is floating around that omits/ or uses different definitions of “what crime is” to slant the results. Some big cities are doing the same thing to show everybody that the soft on crime tactics are working GREAT….

 

[Geezer3d]

It is simple for a city to lower the reported crime rate, all they do is not report the crimes.

 

[GreensvilleJay]

so if someone's murdered and no one is charged... that means the crime rate is lower ??
25+ got 'tagged' in Akron, yet the crime rate is lower ??
and really...do you 1200% have faith in the Fools, Buffoons, and Idiots ??

you can also steal CLASSIFIED documents from a secure government building, hide them in your corvette in your garage, get CAUGHT and NOT be charged..... so NO crime committed ???

 

[DustyRusty]

so if someone's murdered and no one is charged... that means the crime rate is lower ??
25+ got 'tagged' in Akron, yet the crime rate is lower ??
and really...do you 1200% have faith in the Fools, Buffoons, and Idiots ??

you can also steal CLASSIFIED documents from a secure government building, hide them in your corvette in your garage, get CAUGHT and NOT be charged..... so NO crime committed ???

He was deemed not to be of "sound mind and body" and that is the reason that he wasn't charged. The House of Representatives has been trying to get the video of his responses, but the Justice Department won't release them because they "fear that it might be modified by some unscrupulous characters. The Justice Department did release a "transcript" but some have suggested that even the "transcript" might not be exactly what was said. It is a hell of a thing when you can no longer trust our Justice Department because it has become politicalized.
If you are a Democrat, you get a pass (i.e. Hillery Clinton) and if you are a Republican you get prosecuted.

 

[Elliott in GA]

You need to look deeper than just the FBI crime stats; they have been questioned for many years. The FBI just takes input for state and local sources, and these local sources maybe inaccurate, may not report or report intentionally lowered numbers for a variety of reasons. The murder rate is the best measure - murders tend to be reported.


Underlying Cause of Death, 2018-2022, Single Race Results
Deaths occurring through 2022


The above is from the CDC; you will note a massive increase increase in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Link to the CDC: https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D158;jsessionid=912905F2E375F45CA682DFF608AA

Additionally, you have cities where crime is so common place and criminals are immediately released that people stop reporting crime to the police. No police report = no crime.

You can also look at this report that shows crime statistics from various sources (on page 4) to see the real state of crime in the US.

CLOS Research Paper ASSESSING AMERICA’S CRIME CRISIS April 2024 - FINAL.pdf

drive.google.com

 

[The Evil Twin]

The FBI stats only include what is reported to them by local/ state agencies. The local/ state guys are not required to report data. 2022 was the most complete year recently. 80 something percent reported.

 

[ken erickson]

Interesting reading that points to reasons the FBI crime data accuracy is suspect,

Bad data from the FBI mislead about crime - Washington Examiner

The fourth quarter 2023 crime report from the FBI, the federal government’s official keeper of crime data, is unreliable at best and deceptive at worst.

www.washingtonexaminer.com

 

[D2Cat]

If, in fact, crime is down why are there so many jails being built?

 

[jyoutz]

It IS AN ELECTION YEAR.

Supposedly, there is a bunch of skewEd crime data that is floating around that omits/ or uses different definitions of “what crime is” to slant the results. Some big cities are doing the same thing to show everybody that the soft on crime tactics are working GREAT….

The FBI tracks crime statistics every year and they have been measuring the same variables for years.

 

[lugbolt]

The FBI stats only include what is reported to them by local/ state agencies. The local/ state guys are not required to report data. 2022 was the most complete year recently. 80 something percent reported.

that is correct, per a part time FBI agent that I work with at my full-time job.

 

[jaxs]

Crime is down,inflation is down,unemployment is down,border crossing are down,cost of living is down,rental prices are down,drug use is down and all are on track to get lower if bible clinging, low IQ,deplorable voters don't rock the boat.

 

[mikester]

 

[fried1765]

Crime is down,inflation is down,unemployment is down,border crossing are down,cost of living is down,rental prices are down,drug use is down and all are on track to get lower if bible clinging, low IQ,deplorable voters don't rock the boat.

LOVE IT !!!

 

[WI_Hedgehog]

Chicago used to have bad crime numbers, and Milwaukee where I am was "relatively safe" but the numbers also "weren't great," but much better than Chicago. With welfare kids having kids and a sort of "tribal mentality" on the street but without the tribe leader to keep things somewhat sane, Milwaukee is less safe and now has about as much trash/garbage as Chicago used to have. Chicago, not to be outdone, is rife with riots, murders, and the muggings are getting so bad you'd think it's England at night.

It's unfortunate. "Why can't we all just get along?" is a mantra I remember from the late 1970s; the answer is because some people are evil and as much as others want to deny it, there's no denying it. Back then Milwaukee's murder rate was something like one a week, and Chicago was one to two a day. Now we're at two to three a day and Chicago "is too understaffed to track every murder." When I heard Milwaukee being nicknamed "KILLwaukee" it seemed obvious government was corrupt, not performing the most basic of functions: "public safety." Oh, they'll raise taxes and take your rights away "to improve public safety," but your home will get robbed while working that second job to pay for those taxes.

 

[GeoHorn]

so if someone's murdered and no one is charged... that means the crime rate is lower ??
25+ got 'tagged' in Akron, yet the crime rate is lower ??
and really...do you 1200% have faith in the Fools, Buffoons, and Idiots ??

you can also steal CLASSIFIED documents from a secure government building, hide them in your corvette in your garage, get CAUGHT and NOT be charged..... so NO crime committed ???

It depends. Was it INTENTIONAL? Did you Refuse to return them after multiple requests? Did you repeatedly MOVE THEM to prevent their discovery? Did you claim “Immunity” from the law?

OR… did you OPEN your HOUSE for FULL Inspection and Agree to SIT WITH INVESTIGATORS FOR QUESTIONING about it?


Doh.

 

[Elliott in GA]

It depends. Was it INTENTIONAL? Did you Refuse to return them after multiple requests? Did you repeatedly MOVE THEM to prevent their discovery? Did you claim “Immunity” from the law?

OR… did you OPEN your HOUSE for FULL Inspection and Agree to SIT WITH INVESTIGATORS FOR QUESTIONING about it?


Doh.

The report was quite clear; prosecution was not sought because Biden was too elderly and feeble minded.

There was no question of intention. Biden had classified documents going back to his time in the Senate, and he showed classified documents to a writer/ghost writer repeatedly for a book.

Biden could not claim immunity because, unlike Trump, Biden was not President at the time he took the documents. A President has an unfettered ability to declassify, and there is the issue of Presidential Papers.

Neither Biden nor Trump followed proper procedures/the letter of the law.

 

[Steve67]

Wolfman must be on vacation or this thread would be locked

 

[jaxs]

"Why is perception often much different to the truth?"

It is claimed "the pen is mightier than the sword". News media molds public perception and by many accounts often ignores to broadcast reality (truth). I encourage each individual to weigh what news broadcasts say about subjects that individual has firsthand knowledge and experience with. Not what I heard and they said, personal experience, be it birds bees , pole fishing for Bluegill or navigating street life in the hood ,each of us know something like the back of our hand.

We should hold broadcasters to the same standard as courtrooms when it comes to believing what a person says. If it can be proved a witness lied about a single thing their entire testimony loses most if not all creditability. Omitting relevant facts from a broadcast is lying by omission. Bending facts is lying by commission.