I have been checking the NOAA weather website altogether too often for news of El Nino, since it usually means a warmer than average winter for us in lower Michigan, and less snow. As of today the ocean temperatures have reached high enough numbers to declare El Nino, but the atmospheric response eg how much rain falls in Indonesia has not. So they are still saying about 65% chance it will develop later....Last winter which was overkill in my area, was El Nino neutral, meaning ocean temp was about average. So in other words anything could happen around here.
It is a really cool website, lots of useful info including local soil temps if you happen to be wondering about planting corn, the 14 day forecasts, and discussions of predictions etc. So much stuff it is hard to navigate, but it is worth the bother. I don't think anyone has a handle on whether another episode of the polar vortex will develop. So today I was out practicing with the new back blade just in case. Scraped horse manure in the general direction of the mulch heap. Pushing it backwards worked the best, but hard on my neck.