Most terrifying moment on a tractor in years

[jyoutz]

Well.....'inflation' is indeed the label attributed to an imbalance of Supply and Demand. We have to call it something. And I don't disagree that term is often artificially separated from the former as if IT were a demon of its own making.

I would also agree that there are many sources contributing to inflation in any given time span. But in the last two years we have seen a sharp spike.

View attachment 82573

Normally inflation is just a general and fairly flat increase in the cost of goods and services and is easily weathered by most folks. But what we are seeing now (highest rate in 41 years) is something a bit different.

The sharp decline in the purchasing power of our dollar has reached a point where the average family is really feeling it. I would submit we are very much poised to see a recession.

I would hope this would cause people to THINK about the root causes of inflation, what wasn't avoidable and what WAS avoidable (or should have been).

Yes, we had a pandemic. But we also had a knee-jerk reaction to it which severely crippled this nations economy (and others) with ridiculous mandates. As a result of that....there is a global supply chain issue (Demand vs. Supply) as Nations begin to return to pre-pandemic norms.

Then we (U.S) had stimulus packages, which at first were probably appropriate to prevent a depression, but afterward did nothing but line the pockets of persons not really in need of it. You can't just print TRILLIONS of dollars, distribute it among the populace and not expect inflation once it starts to be spent.

Then we have fuel issues....a HUGE driver in the cost of transportation and goods in general. When you have an administration rabidly against the use and production of fossil fuels, making it more difficult at every turn, it forces the Oil Companies to protect their interests. This is common sense.

Crude Oil/Fuels are traded in 'Futures' (pricing for those products is decided on a future basis). When the 'future' looks to be uncertain (if not adverse) you can bet your butt prices will reflect that. Why in the world would an administration (anywhere) take an already crippled/limited oil/fuel situation and shoot it in the other foot!

We need to have competent people in important positions of our government and fewer idealogues.

And I couldn't agree more that Citizens United needs to go.

There is no shortage of US oil production:

STEO

You think that worldwide factors may influence fuel prices? Congress authorized exports several years ago, and now oil/fuel prices are established by the worldwide market.

 

[Flintknapper]

Yep. Oil production is on track in 2022 to tie the record 2019 year, and set a new record in 2023. Read the report.

STEO

I don' t need to read the report. Go back and read my post #18.

I am not arguing that Crude Oil 'production' is the entirety of the problem. Rather our ability to REFINE that product and the TYPE of oil we produce domestically and/or import. Down roughly 900,000 b/d less than at the end of 2019 (operable refinery capacity).

There are reasons we export our oil and import others. And while global demand and supply certainly influence the price of crude oil, that is not the end of the story. Crude prices are not governed solely by supply and demand, but also by sentiments towards 'Futures' contracts which are traded by speculators.

When any market creates an adversarial 'future' for fossil fuels, then you may bet your last dollar that Oil Companies and futures traders are going to react to it.

 

[jyoutz]

I don' t need to read the report. Go back and read my post #18.

I am not arguing that Crude Oil 'production' is the entirety of the problem. Rather our ability to REFINE that product and the TYPE of oil we produce domestically and/or import. Down roughly 900,000 b/d less than at the end of 2019 (operable refinery capacity).

There are reasons we export our oil and import others. And while global demand and supply certainly influence the price of crude oil, that is not the end of the story. Crude prices are not governed solely by supply and demand, but also by sentiments towards 'Futures' contracts which are traded by speculators.

When any market creates an adversarial 'future' for fossil fuels, then you may bet your last dollar that Oil Companies and futures traders are going to react to it.

Considering there hasn’t been a new US refinery built in decades, this situation isn’t something that recently occurred. And there no denying that oil companies are focused on recouping shareholder losses that occurred during the Covid price declines. Many companies have stated this at shareholder meetings.

 

[Flintknapper]

Considering there hasn’t been a new US refinery built in decades, this situation isn’t something that recently occurred. And there no denying that oil companies are focused on recouping shareholder losses that occurred during the Covid price declines. Many companies have stated this at shareholder meetings.

Not only has there not been a 'major' (greenfield) refinery built in the U.S. since the late '70's.....we have LOST 5 in the last two years! So our 'ability' to produce fuels (gas, diesel, jet fuel) is hampered, leading to shortages (current and future). And THAT is something that has "recently occurred".

Big Oil is indeed trying to recover from the pandemic (like any other business), this isn't price 'gouging' or 'greed' as has been asserted, but good business sense and the Free Market at work (pricing what the market will bear). But.....Oil Companies must also consider their costs (in the FUTURE) to produce (or purchase) crude oil. When that 'future' is uncertain....we see what many will label inflated prices. Wall Street has a role in this too.

In order to increase production to meet the supply demand, NEW, renovated or converted refineries must be built/brought on line. This takes YEARS to accomplish and the cost can be in the hundreds of millions to several billion dollars. Oil Companies must first be financially liquid enough to build/renovate and then be assured that once brought on line....the refineries will be profitable in a reasonable amount of time.

China is currently building 4 new large refineries....which when brought on line will likely make them the largest manufacturer of refined fuels worldwide. Just one more thing futures traders will have to consider.

Shareholders of stocks always want more return on their investments, hardly breaking news. So if there is 'greed' anywhere it lies mostly with them.

There are more than 250 million gas/diesel powered vehicles in the U.S. About 3% of all vehicles in the U.S. are electric powered. We NEED fossil fuels NOW. This 'transition' to electric is being pushed too hard and fast and policies and regulations are being made that are punitive to Oil/Fuel production in hopes of making electric look more appealing. The current administration is all on board with that.

No one (or few) is pointing to WalMart, General Motors, Apple, etc and complaining they are making too much profit. The Oil Industry has suffered the same set backs as any other business with respect to supply chains, man power, maintenance/repair and construction needs. But one major difference is that the current administration and Climate Control zealots have not vowed to put an end to them.

 

[radas]

I would LOVE to get my hands on some of those 'I did that!' stickers!!

They need to make them for members of Congress so we can shame them for things the president has nothing to do with.

 

[jyoutz]

It was

They need to make them for members of Congress so we can shame them for things the president has nothing to do with.

it was congress that authorized exports of oil/fuel.

 

[fishpick]

I just want to know - why did my funny thread have go to shit like everything on the interwebs!?

 

[Flintknapper]

It was

it was congress that authorized exports of oil/fuel.

Yes, but that isn't necessarily/always a bad thing. We aren't exporting 'fuel' for the most part but Crude Oil.

Congress repealed the crude oil export ban in December 2015, so this is nothing recent or new.

We export certain Crude Oil at certain times because production of 'Light/Sweet' oil exceeds our ability to refine it. This brings in more revenue for the Oil Companies. Other Countries are better set up to refine Light Crude than we are.

I can't say this enough times to make it stick in peoples minds I guess. The bulk of refineries in the U.S. are set up to refine Heavy Crude. You can NOT refine Light Crude in those plants or vice versa. So WE import heavy crude (to supplement what we produce) and export Light Crude and will continue to do so until we can build or convert refineries to crack Light Crude.

That is why we don't need crippling regulations, taxes and permits placed upon the Oil Industry. Domestic refining capability is playing 'catch up'. Owing to several factors and advances in technology we are producing more Light/Sweet crude than before.

Increases in U.S. crude oil production are predominantly light, sweet crude - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

But in the past we have been set up to refine Heavy/Sour Crude! It takes money and time (and the assurance of future profits) to make the transition to processing Light Crude. So we don't need any administration or Climate Change groups poking a stick in the eye of Big Oil. Unless you WANT high fuel prices (which they do).

 

[Flintknapper]

I just want to know - why did my funny thread have go to shit like everything on the interwebs!?

I must plea Mea Culpa and apologize for contributing to the derailment of your thread.

With that....I am out of this one. Again, sorry.

Flint.

 

[Ridelght]

As someone who burns a lot of diesel for a living, I am livid. My 60 gallon transfer tank keeps getting refilled for close to $6/gal (off-road red diesel) so I can run my side business. The diesel pickup ferrying the tractor on a big trailer (along with other equipment) to and from jobs is sucking down diesel at the road taxed rate of $6.29 per gallon. People can spin it any way they want, but the bottom line is the very oil unfriendly administration currently in office are the ones responsible for this problem. This is a conscientious effort to get people off the gas and diesel, and on to electrics. The big problem is there is no electric solution for anything more than a half ton pickup, and what if you just plain don't want an electric? What if you are totally satisfied with your gas or diesel burning vehicle you have now? Beyond that, there isn't enough power being generated even if everyone wanted to drive an EV. At the end of the day, average Americans with no political agenda are getting it stuck to them hard by the government, on purpose.

Well said. There is also the cost of replacing all your equipment. All agenda driven. Average person feeling the effects.

 

[jyoutz]

Well said. There is also the cost of replacing all your equipment. All agenda driven. Average person feeling the effects.

Once again, the world is far larger than the US, and everyone is experiencing high fuel prices. This is much bigger than a presidential administration. We do not exist in a vacuum. Political parties are simply playing this up and finger pointing because most voters don’t look beyond the county they live in.

 

[Daren Todd]

I was sitting in a long lineup Thursday with my Harley, waiting to get gas at the cheapest place around.
I was cooking in the heat(ATGATT)...slight up-grade and the low fuel light came on. I finally pumped in $36.50 (17.5L) into an 18L tank. I was sweating(cooking in the heat) and sweating (fearful of running out of gas ) trying to push an 850lb bike up to the pump. The final sweat was the cost. Ouch !

I am sure your tractor will take more than $36.50 but it still hurt. I usually put in $18-$20 in the thing.

Friggin fuel cost is getting ridick !

I pushed an F250 diesel with trailer attached out of the road once. Figure I was sitting at around 20,000 lbs.

In all honesty though, I happened to be on the downhill side of the crown on the highway.

 

[Daren Todd]

^^^^^

As sure the sun will rise tomorrow, Commiefornia will have rolling black outs this summer. And they want everyone to have an electric car.....?

They are already advising people to not charge there cars because of said blackouts.

 

[Daren Todd]

Considering there hasn’t been a new US refinery built in decades, this situation isn’t something that recently occurred. And there no denying that oil companies are focused on recouping shareholder losses that occurred during the Covid price declines. Many companies have stated this at shareholder meetings.

Average cost per gallon of gas in January 2017 was 2.35/gallon
January 2018 was 2.52/gallon
January 2019 was 2 38/ gallon

That was before the "pandemic prices".

January 2020 was 2.63/gallon.
January 2021 was 2.42/gallon
January 2022 was 3.41/ gallon.

 

[jyoutz]

Average cost per gallon of gas in January 2017 was 2.35/gallon
January 2018 was 2.52/gallon
January 2019 was 2 38/ gallon

That was before the "pandemic prices".

January 2020 was 2.63/gallon.
January 2021 was 2.42/gallon
January 2022 was 3.41/ gallon.

Yep. Nothing about the world economy is the same today as 2017. Europe also lost a large percentage of their fuel supplies this year, driving up worldwide demand. And the post Covid economy is inflationary worldwide. Everything costs more in every place in the world. China tariffs also increased the cost of consumer products.

 

[Fordtech86]

Europe also lost a large percentage of their fuel supplies this year, driving up worldwide demand.

Why’s that?

 

[jyoutz]

Why’s that?

You know why

 

[number two]

Yes, but that isn't necessarily/always a bad thing. We aren't exporting 'fuel' for the most part but Crude Oil.

Congress repealed the crude oil export ban in December 2015, so this is nothing recent or new.

We export certain Crude Oil at certain times because production of 'Light/Sweet' oil exceeds our ability to refine it. This brings in more revenue for the Oil Companies. Other Countries are better set up to refine Light Crude than we are.

I can't say this enough times to make it stick in peoples minds I guess. The bulk of refineries in the U.S. are set up to refine Heavy Crude. You can NOT refine Light Crude in those plants or vice versa. So WE import heavy crude (to supplement what we produce) and export Light Crude and will continue to do so until we can build or convert refineries to crack Light Crude.

That is why we don't need crippling regulations, taxes and permits placed upon the Oil Industry. Domestic refining capability is playing 'catch up'. Owing to several factors and advances in technology we are producing more Light/Sweet crude than before.

Increases in U.S. crude oil production are predominantly light, sweet crude - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

But in the past we have been set up to refine Has been heavy/Sour Crude! It takes money and time (and the assurance of future profits) to make the transition to processing Light Crude. So we don't need any administration or Climate Change groups poking a stick in the eye of Big Oil. Unless you WANT high fuel prices (which they do).

Respectfully Sir-Light/Sweet crude has been the go-to crude for decades,such as oil from the Middle East.
Easy to refine and a high yield.
The Heavy/Sour crude that is what our refineries are converting slowly to handle-at least some of them.

 

[Flintknapper]

Respectfully Sir-Light/Sweet crude has been the go-to crude for decades,such as oil from the Middle East.
Easy to refine and a high yield.
The Heavy/Sour crude that is what our refineries are converting slowly to handle-at least some of them.

The trend toward lighter Crude has been going on since about 2011. But the bulk of refineries (especially along the Gulf Coast) are configured to process Heavy Crude. Mixing of Crude has been done and a swing toward configuring for Light Crude has been underway for years. Middle Eastern Crude can be Heavy, Light or Medium. We import what is needed at the time. Refineries are slowly converting/configuring to handle both. Smaller (near tea pot) refineries (less than 50,000 B/CD) can be exempt from certain regulations (EPA) and I don't know which way they are trending (probably Light) but they don't contribute much to production.

Why the U.S. Must Import and Export Oil

With Wall Street Journal headlines such as “Trans-Atlantic Oil-Price Spread Soars as Supply Glut Disappears,” it might be hard to remember that the United States’ domestic oil production stood at a record 10.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, and the nation’s petroleum trade balance is...

www.api.org

Shale oil has a refining problem, and Morgan Stanley thinks investors can profit

=U.S. oil may soon struggle to find a a home in refineries. Morgan Stanley believes that could create opportunities.

www.cnbc.com

"Most American refineries are configured to process heavier crude grades, creating a mismatch with the growing supply of light shale oil being extracted in places like the Permian Basin in Texas."

 

[58Ford]

I just want to know - why did my funny thread have go to shit like everything on the interwebs!?

I gave it my best shot!