RIP Ford F150e (long live the F150)

[TheOldHokie]

Check your reading. The rate of change of sales is falling in many markets as is clearly evident from these charts. The BEV markets are stagnating and China is the market that's supposedly driving any increase in that rate of change, but data from China is famously unreliable. It's in their best interest to give the impression of something that benefits their economy, mining of specific elements for example.

View attachment 167482

My reading is fine. Yoy claimed both. Check thatvsame data for ICE sales and tell me what ut portends.

Dan

 

[McMXi]

My reading is fine. Yoy claimed both. Check thatvsame data for ICE sales and tell me what ut portends.

Dan

Statistics can be framed to make a point without context. Since we're looking at what's ahead, the rate of change of sales is what's important in predicting trends, not units per year. Sales are up doesn't mean that a particular market is healthy since a 1% increase in sales over the previous year is technically "up" but sales have flatlined in this example. Since there's plenty of historical data, it's hard to put a positive spin on the decline in the rate of increase in sales.

I'm not opposed to BEV/PHEV but I am opposed to any misrepresentation of data and manipulation.

 

[TheOldHokie]

I did want to be clear that I do not "hate" BEV's and know they are here to stay.

I do think there is a lot more to the story than just the new EV sitting in the garage with all it's new technology etc.

Costs to the American tax payer have been substantial , some estimates put the direct cost of tax incentives upwards of 25 billion dollars since 2008. That is just the cost of the $7500 new , and $4000 used incentive, not the tax incentives that went to manufactures and battery manufactures.

Every consumer that purchases a new ICE vehicle from a manufacture is also paying more to cover the losses of the BEV's , to the tune of $500 to $1000 dollars. I am not sure of a USA manufacture of BEV's that actually makes a profit on them other than Tesla.

One of the other issues that we will be facing world wide is the soon to be aging of batteries and disposal. The technology to recycle these batteries is in its infancy.

None of that is peculiar to EVs.

We have subsidized and continue to subsidize evolving technologies. Sometimes its a huge winner other times not so much. Personally I think thats a legitimate role for government and a wise policy.

Profitability will ultimately determine the wisdom of the EV bet. As I said - talk to me again in another 15 years.

Dan

 

[jimh406]

I think it will take a few years for EV sales to stabilize in the US. Some states are mandating zero emissions and are starting to realize they don't have enough power for them. This is probably going to get worse as power demands go higher for AI. It seems they are looking for ways to tax them at the same time since they aren't buying conventional fuel.

 

[ken erickson]

None of that is peculiar to EVs.

We have subsidized and continue to subsidize evolving technologies. Sometimes its a huge winner other times not so much. Personally I think thats a legitimate role for government and a wise policy.

Profitability will ultimately determine the wisdom of the EV bet. As I said - talk to me again in another 15 years.

Dan

I will have to agree to disagree and not so sure I have another 15 years!

 

[TheOldHokie]

I will have to agree to disagree and not so sure I have another 15 years!

We share a similar time horizon. Fifteen years for me would be defying the odds bigly but hopefully we can both revist this discussion Xmas 2040 and compare notes

Merry Christmas to all!!!

 

[MapleLeafFarmer]

well for battery tools we have gone from 1961 B&D with a 10 minut4e run-time to todays latest and greatest.
Looking fwd to seeing where vehicles take us over the coming years.
we have come a long way.



1961 B&D first electric drill?

latest and greatest?

 

[GreensvilleJay]

I think it will take a few years for EV sales to stabilize in the US. Some states are mandating zero emissions and are starting to realize they don't have enough power for them. This is probably going to get worse as power demands go higher for AI. It seems they are looking for ways to tax them at the same time since they aren't buying conventional fuel.

easy to tax,just scan and grab odometer reading every year,sub last years number, calculate tax, send bill.

 

[Sidekick]

I read they are working on the taxation now to equal the road tax on fossile fuel. For many states sounds like it will not be by the mile but rather by the KWH the vehicle is replenished with during charging tracked buy VIN and billed either at refueling or monthly. Even if you charge at home the vehicle will keep track and report it. Going by mileage didn't work out as it doesn't take into effect the vehicle weight that causes the most road damage, kw per mile is more accurate . Heavy truck / tractor trailer rigs will have different rates. Evs are 7% of the vehicles using the highways now that currently don't pay road taxes. About time they start. LP vehicles are another that need taxation rules. Time for the government to get back some of the money for all the incentives and investments in the technology.

 

[lynnmor]

latest and greatest?
View attachment 167484

Hey that looks like the average yard sale table piled up with worthless battery powered junk.

 

[InTheWoods]

... Evs are 7% of the vehicles using the highways now that currently don't pay road taxes. ...

True, in some states. But in my state, I get to pay an extra $230 a year for my registration of an EV.

 

[Sidekick]

True, in some states. But in my state, I get to pay an extra $230 a year for my registration of an EV.

That's state and local level probably to offset the sales tax on gas you don't pay plus training first responders and buying needed equipment for EV crashes. Fed highway tax is around the corner. About time EV owners pay their share.

 

[North Idaho Wolfman]

I laugh at all the negative spin everyone wants to put on EV's

Let's just add to this "spin list"

EV's don't require emissions tests.
EV's don't require the EPA trying to figure out how to control their emissions.
EV's do dump oil and fuel on the ground and get into the streams and rivers.
EV's don't require special exhaust systems in tunnels to let you be able to breath.
EV's don't have used contaminated motor oil, oil filters, fuel filters, all of which needs to be properly recycled , but most just dump them in the trash, and then just dump the oil in their yard or on someone else's property.

 

[WFM]

I laugh too.
Ill leave it at that.

 

[jimh406]

Some of us laugh at all of the negative spin everyone wants to put on ICE and Hybrids while positive spinning EVs.

At the end of the day, this thread probably isn't changing any minds.

 

[GrumpyFarmer]

All this positive and negative spin has gotten me all AMPED up.

I would contribute some science to this thread if I thought I wouldn’t get GROUNDED.

Merry Christmas!

 

[Shawn T. W]

EV's pay a higher yearly registration "fee"

Propane pays the same "road use tax" as gasoline ... It's called "motor fuel" at the pump or filling station. I'm guessing Natural Gas does too ... But I only worked with propane.

 

[xrocketengineer]

Short and interesting article about EV vs. ICE cost per 100 miles. Strangely, Luxury EV's come out ahead but for small cars and trucks is the opposite, ICE is cheaper.
NIW will probably be glad to hear that.